By Ariana Armstrong
OTTAWA — The evidence is clear: Canadian seniors vote. Elections Canada data shows that Canadians aged 65 to 74 consistently vote in higher percentages than any other age group during federal elections.
But while the trend suggests that seniors will once again turn out to vote during the 2015 federal election, CARP says seniors won’t necessarily vote as a bloc.
Formerly called the Canadian Association of Retired Persons, CARP is a national non-partisan organization that lobbies the federal government on behalf of Canadian seniors. CARP has 60 chapters across the country and the average age of its 300,000 members is 68. CARP has spent the last six years collecting data to confirm and/or debunk myths regarding seniors’ voting habits.
“We’ve shaken down some stereotypes about older voters,” says Susan Eng, CARP’s vice-president of advocacy.
CARP uses its biweekly email newsletters to survey its members about a variety of topics, including political preferences. The surveys reach approximately 100,000 email addresses and the organization tracks responses over time.
One of the things CARP has tried to determine through its surveys is whether or not its members vote as a bloc.
“I can’t say they vote as a bloc, and we don’t want them to,” Eng says. “We want them to make individual decisions.”
Patrik Marier, scientific director at the Centre for Research and Expertise in Social Gerontology in Côte Saint-Luc, Que., agrees with this finding.
“The evidence is that they don’t vote as a bloc,” Marier says. “The effect is far more subtle.”
CARP’s survey results also challenge the assumption that seniors tend to favour Conservative policies.
In its September political preferences survey, CARP asked its members who they would vote for if an election was held that day. The results showed that 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals, while 38 per cent would vote for the Conservatives and 13 per cent would vote for the NDP. Survey respondents have consistently favoured the Liberals during the past year.
September’s survey was based on almost 4,000 responses submitted between Sept. 25 and 28, 2014. CARP estimates that its margin of error is plus or minus two per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Another myth CARP set out to test was whether or not older voters remain loyal to a particular political party over the years.
According to Marier, the best predictor of voting patterns is how a person voted earlier in life.
“If you voted NDP all your life, turning 65 doesn’t change that,” Marier says.
But CARP’s data suggests that older voters are not necessarily loyal to a particular political party.
“They’re prepared to change their vote on issues that they care about,” Eng says.
Eng says seniors are also among the most politically engaged Canadian citizens.
“CARP members, as a demographic, tend to vote all the time,” Eng says.
Elections Canada data supports this assertion. The data shows that 1.9 million people aged 65 to 74 voted during the 2011 federal election. That number translates into an overall voter turnout of 75.1 per cent for that age group.
This percentage was significantly higher than the national average, which was 61.1 per cent. It was also significantly higher than the voter turnout for other age groups. Turnout was a mere 38.8 per cent for voters aged 18 to 24.
(Please click here for more numbers and statistics on aging in Canada)
This trend is not limited to the 2011 federal election. The data shows that seniors aged 65 to 74 consistently have the highest voter turnout percentage of all age groups during federal elections, with their turnout being 68.4 per cent in 2008, 77.5 per cent in 2006, and 75.5 per cent in 2004.
While they may not vote as a bloc, Eng says seniors represent a demographic that should be taken seriously by politicians.
“They’re actually going to go out and vote, and they’re more likely to vote the way they said they would,” Eng says.
“They’re a huge group. They’re very diverse, but they’re also a very proactive group,” Eng says. “It would be unwise for politicians and others to think of them as homogenous.”
As the next federal election approaches, seniors have an assorted list of priorities.
NDP MP Irene Mathyssen, the official Opposition critic for seniors, says her party believes that financial security, housing, and health care are some of the main areas of concern.
“If you look at the records of various governments, those are precisely the areas where they have fallen down,” Mathyssen says.
CARP’s political survey suggests that Mathyssen’s list is an accurate reflection of seniors’ priorities. CARP members want to see home care, long-term care, an expansion of the Canada Pension Plan, and the creation of a national pharmacare program on the political agenda.
Mathyssen says seniors simply don’t get enough money from the federal government. By January 2029, the eligible age for the Old Age Security pension and Guaranteed Income Supplement, a monthly non-taxable benefit, will be increased from 65 to 67. Efforts to reform and increase the Canada Pension Plan have been stalled by the Conservative government. (Click here for a closer look at seniors’ retirement income.)
Seniors’ lack of financial security is also closely tied to increasingly unaffordable housing and health care.
“They want to know that they’re secure in their homes, that they can stay in their homes for as long as possible,” Mathyssen says. “But they can’t afford it anymore.”
“Seniors are saying ‘I have to make a choice between filling my prescription and paying the rent or paying a bill’.”
Mathyssen says the next government should move the Old Age Security eligibility age back down to 65, increase the Guaranteed Income Supplement by 15 per cent, and increase the Canada Pension Plan. She is also calling for national housing and pharmacare strategies.
“We can do better, and we have to do better,” Mathyssen says.
“We all need that kind of community support, and we as a community need to provide it.”
Conservative and Liberal representatives did not respond to several requests for comments on these issues.
Both NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau have made commitments to restore the Old Age Security eligibility age to 65 and increase the Canada Pension Plan if elected in 2015. Mulcair’s commitment was announced at a CARP meeting in October 2012 and Trudeau announced his plan during CARP’s annual general meeting in October 2014. The Conservatives have yet to respond.
Photo: “Canada Votes 2008” courtesy of Flickr user Dean Shareski. Image downloaded from Flickr.
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