Canada should end bombing, take on ‘logistical role’ against ISIS: experts, NGOs

Security experts and non-governmental organizations are supportive of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s commitment to withdraw Canada’s warplanes from the international bombing coalition against the Islamic State, despite continued public support for the airstrikes.

• See also: Canada should keep bombing role against ISIS: experts

Speaking earlier at the G20 summit on Nov. 16, Trudeau announced Canada will be replacing its CF-18 fighter jets with increased training for local Iraqi troops – a move the prime minister emphasized was “still a serious military role for Canada.”

Security expert Jez Littlewood argues the withdrawal is an effective re-focusing of Canadian foreign policy in the region that builds on the country’s reputation as a peacekeeper.

“We’ve made a commitment to withdraw from the combat role, but that doesn’t mean the end of our support to the anti-ISIS coalition,” says Littlewood, a professor specializing in terrorism and intelligence at the Normal Paterson School of International Affairs.

“Rather, it means we’re re-focusing our involvement in the coalition and taking on a more logistical role, for which Canada has the capabilities.”

“Six CF-18s are definitely not going to make or break the coalition.”— Jez Littlewood, security expert

That logistical role could build on the country’s strength in provisional training and humanitarian support, eventually even leading to a ceasefire agreement and peacekeeping mission in the region, Littlewood explains.

Trudeau’s announcement came three days after ISIS claimed responsibility for attacks in Paris that left 130 people dead and many more injured, leading French president François Hollande to declare war on the terrorist group.

Data from the Canadian Armed Forces suggests the six Canadian planes have flown less than three per cent of the coalition missions, which means their absence will leave a gap easily filled by the United States’ military capabilities.

“While the contribution of six CF-18 isn’t insignificant, it’s also definitely not going to make or break the coalition,” Littlewood says.

More harm than good

The Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East (CJPME) group applauds Trudeau’s commitment to withdrawal and argues the bombing campaign offers no clear path to any favourable outcomes – adding it could even end up doing more harm than good.

“Violence doesn’t lead to solutions,” says Thomas Woodley, who is the president of the Canadian NGO dedicated to promoting peaceful foreign policy in the region.

“There are instances when airstrikes can handicap ISIS, but inevitable collateral damage killing civilians and destroying communities could just as easily radicalize individuals and provide ISIS with additional recruits,” Woodley explains.

“Violence doesn’t lead to solutions.”— Thomas Woodley, Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East president

As many as 27 Iraqi civilians may have been killed as a result of a Canadian airstrike, according to a leaked internal Pentagon document obtained by the CBC. And according to the Airwars project, the Western bombing coalition has already killed more than 450 civilians.

Organizations such as the CJPME have long advocated for broad-based policy responses, which include humanitarian intervention, undermining ISIS’s ability to garner local support, as well as addressing what Woodley calls “inconsistent” Western policies in the region.

“We all feel the impetus to just ‘do something,’ but the military response is a cheap reaction,” Woodley argues. The reaction is “cheap,” he says, because while airstrikes risk nothing, they also don’t offer any short-term or long-term effective solutions to such complex crises.

“It is also important to note that the coalition bombing ISIS does so without a United Nations mandate. As such, it violates international law.”

Airstrikes began in 2014, but many experts argue they haven’t made any significant difference in the ongoing crises in Syria and Iraq despite the fact that ISIS has been losing territory as a result of the bombings. Even the victory in the Syrian city of Kobani was termed by many as a “low hanging fruit”, or easy victory.

Possible solutions

“Ultimately, the war will be won on the ground by somebody,” argues professor Steve Saideman, the Paterson Chair in International Affairs at Carleton University.

“The big question is what exactly the Trudeau government is going to do next, because it promised to withdraw the CF-18 planes from the combat mission but that doesn’t necessarily include reconnaissance and refuelling planes, which are actually in higher demand by our allies.”

“Canada will do its part.”— Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

According to data from National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces, Canada’s Aurora reconnaissance aircraft (CP-140) has flown 340 times, while its Polaris refueller (CC-150T) has flown 314 times as of Dec. 2, 2015.

Saideman argues these observation and refuelling planes could be based and stationed in Kuwait, especially because they’re not combat aircraft. After all, while Trudeau has promised to withdraw fighter jets, he’s also promised that Canada would continue to “do its part” in the fight.

As suggested by Littlewood, transitioning to a logistical involvement could see Canada focus on humanitarian efforts – but Woodley argues that’s a contentious topic among many politicians.

“Western leaders won’t want to hear this but a long-term humanitarian investment, coupled with an overhaul of our current diplomatic approach, is the only way we can hope to constructively address issues,” Woodley says, adding the effort would take at least a generation to complete.

While increasing foreign aid may prove challenging in the cases of fragile or failed states such as Syria, Canada could focus on doing what it has already done effectively in the past, Saideman argues.

“Canada can provide shelter to refugees and provide aid to neighbouring countries that are housing the most refugees, such as Turkey and Lebanon. We can do more to help people in the region,” he says.

Indeed, besides Trudeau’s campaign pledge to withdraw from the airstrikes, he’s also promised to resettle 10,000 Syrian refugees in Canada by the end of this year and 15,000 more by the end of February next year.

The bottom line, according to University of Ottawa professor Kamal Dib, is that the ongoing conflict in Syria and Iraq is so multifaceted that will require an equally complex and nuanced policy response from Canada.

“There’s been no real movement towards a resolution,” Dib argues, “but a true breakthrough would be talks and peace negotiations amongst the main parties [the Assad regime and the rebels].”

Trudeau has yet to announce a timeline for when the CF-18 jets will return home, but said on the night of the Paris attacks that the withdrawal will be done “responsibly.”

“This means that there’s going to be a negotiated withdrawal that will serve the purposes of both the Canadian government and the coalition,” according to Littlewood.