By Suman Bhattacharyya
Whether they’re right, left, blue, orange or red, they all concede that traditional issues in Ottawa Centre have a sharper edge this time round.
“It’s one of the most exciting constituencies in Canada,” says George Devine, campaign manager for Liberal candidate Richard Patten. “To be involved politically, it’s kind of a microcosm of all the issues that there are provincially.”
Devine says the riding’s mix of low, middle and upper income residents from many different cultures sets it apart from others.
“If you look at the demographics of it, it’s one of the most diverse,” he says.
Indeed, the diversity of Ottawa Centre contributes to a particular political culture. Historically, the constituency has swung back and forth between Liberals and New Democrats. Though the seat is currently held by Liberal MPP Richard Patten, the NDP took it in seven of the last nine elections.
“Ottawa Centre was much more organized politically (than other ridings),” says Caroline Andrew, political science professor at the University of Ottawa. She says neighbourhood groups formed a significant part of the political organization in the area.
From these groups, a shared view emerged on how to maintain the income diversity of the riding and consequently lead to support for a strong governmental role, she says.
“The sense of its own organizing over the years elected a lot of NDP candidates and people who had a base in community organization,” says Andrew.
Ottawa Centre was carved out as a provincial constituency in 1966. It was primarily a downtown riding that ran north to the Ottawa river, south to the Rideau Canal and west to Island Park Drive.
Observers contend that key issues have remained the same over a time frame that extends past the past three election campaigns.
“The issues in my ward have changed very little over the last 15 years,” says Somerset Ward regional councillor Diane Holmes, who has held the position for 16 years.
Holmes says housing remains an important concern, since the vacancy rate in the affordable category is still very low, a sentiment shared by Evelyn Gigantes, who held the seat under the NDP government of Bob Rae.
“Housing is a critical issue in Ottawa Centre and it has been traditionally,” says Gigantes, who also held the seat for three years in the mid-1980s. “No assisted housing has been built for over the last few years.”
It is also a perception held by the Liberals. In addition, healthcare and education have always been pressing areas, according to NDP candidate Elizabeth Arnold and Liberal campaign manager George Devine.
However, Conservatives see the economy as a significant issue for the riding.
“I think it’s still coming back to the economy,” says Conservative candidate Ray Kostuch. “People are concerned about the economy and they want to make sure they have a government that’s maintaining economic growth.”
Kostuch says crime is a pressing problem, an opinion shared by Holmes.
“We have been working very hard (to fight crime), but there is still some concern about safety in Centretown,” Holmes says.
Despite the appearance of a consistent pattern of issues over the years, important changes have put a new face on familiar topics.
“(The issues) have a sharper edge because of people’s anger with what’s happened in Ontario,” says Gigantes.
Both the Liberals and the NDP speak of the consequences of policies like school and hospital closures.
But the riding of Ottawa Centre is not what it used to be. For the first time in a provincial election, the constituency has been expanded to include all of the old territory of Ottawa Centre, nine per cent of the former Ottawa-Rideau, 17 per cent of Ottawa South and 23 per cent of Ottawa West.
Andrew says that while the old territory was highly organized politically and an area in which the local candidate counted, the new areas added are less diverse.
“The bits that have been added are not made up of groups that have been mobilized in terms of how you maintain diversity,” she says.
Hence, the boundary change is likely to benefit the Tories, Andrew says.
“The new riding in being less supportive of that view (a stronger governmental role) is more pro-Conservative, so I think to that extent it helps the Conservatives,” she says.
Pollster Conrad Winn however says the changes could benefit the Liberals.
“My impression without knowing any detail is that some of the parts being added are kind of Liberal,” says Winn, president of COMPAS and political scientist at Carleton University.
When the new areas that are not as organized locally are added to the constituency, Andrew says the campaign becomes more of a media event for the provincial party as the specific community context of the individual becomes less important. Therefore, parties that are not as strong in the community are likely to benefit.
Winn shares this view.
“With the passage of days, the election becomes ever more provincial and ever less local,” he says.
At the same time, it appears the general public remains unclear as to the nature of the boundary changes that are likely to affect the issues and the campaign.
“I’ve seen some signs that are on what I think are the wrong properties,” says Holmes. “There’s some confusion as to where the boundaries are.”