A perceived ability to protect Canada’s economic interests against U.S. President Donald Trump is one of the primary ballot questions uniting Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative success and Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney’s popular rise, according to one pollster.

Increased focus on this question drove Ford’s majority win on Feb. 23 and is also behind polling at the federal level, said David Coletto, founder, chair and CEO of Abacus Data.

“Three months ago, it was primarily about the cost of living and who is going to bring relief to people who felt scarcity in their lives,” Coletto said. “Today it’s increasingly about who’s best to navigate the world we’re now in with Donald Trump threatening Canada and people feeling deeply insecure about what it all means for them.”

Around 37 per cent of Canadian voters trust the Conservative party most to handle the cost of living crisis, while 21 per cent put their trust in the Liberals, according to a recent survey conducted by Abacus.



Ford consistently polled above his closest competitor by an average of 12 percentage points during the election, according to polling data averaged from Abacus, Léger and Mainstreet.



Coletto added an emerging preference for incumbents may also be a factor in recent polling trends. He said Ford proved through his time in government that cost of living is a key issue, gaining trust through his familiar face and platform despite not having significant economic experience.

“I don’t know if people would have said Doug Ford has the most experience, or has the skill set to navigate the economy through this. I think they just understood that he had their backs and was standing up to Trump,” Coletto said.

With all eyes now on federal polling ahead of an upcoming election, Coletto said Canadians are increasingly concerned about the impact of Trump’s policy on the Canadian economy and public polls reflect that.

The same Abacus study on the opinion landscape shows that 39 per cent of Canadian voters trust the Liberals to fight against the Trump administration more than any other party, compared to 29 per cent of voters who trust the Conservatives.



Following Carney’s dominating Liberal leadership win, the party is now polling neck-and-neck with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, according to most recent polls.

With policy intentions against Trump significantly important, Coletto said Carney’s extensive economic experience, in addition to the incumbent preference, are contributing to the Liberal rise in popularity.

“Carney has come along at almost the perfect time for him, in that the public mindset is shifting to a place where more and more Canadians are open to the idea of another Liberal government, even though they’ve been in power for 10 years.”

When drawing connections between the recent Ontario election and current federal polling, Coletto pointed to the prominent personalities behind the popular campaigns. As incumbents, Ford and Carney both project stability when faced against Trump’s tariffs and cost of living threats.

“I think it comes down to who people feel most comfortable with,” he said.

“Mark Carney doesn’t have a whole bunch of economic policy yet. So people are projecting onto him a belief that he’s best, or is able to handle the rough waters that I think Canada’s facing.”

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