Despite a small drop in October, fruits and vegetables are still among the top three most expensive grocery items for Canadians, with prices in stores constantly fluctuating.
Away from the supermarket, local farmers are trying to keep their own prices consistent while facing tariff and inflation pressures, but that effort seems to be paying off at least for some producers.
Matthew Mason-Phillips, co-founder of Heart City Farm, has been growing organic produce for Ottawans since 2015.
“Our pricing hasn’t actually changed that much since we started. I think our first price increase was after eight years of being in operation,” he said.
Mason-Phillips said he and co-founder Madeleine Maltby try to keep their prices, but that recent pressures have forced them to re-evaluate.
“All of our inputs are more expensive year-after-year so that’s something you have to try and account for and factor in,” he said.
Mason-Phillips and Maltby are not the only ones in this predicament.
Natalie Childs co-owns Agricola Cooperative Farm, which is based in Papineauville, Que. Her farm buys most of its seeds from the U.S., so she says the business has had to slightly increase prices because inflation and tariffs have raised their cost of production.
But the increases haven’t been too dramatic. She said, for example, within the past six years, one piece of produce might have been raised from $4 to $5.
“It’s fairly minimal,” said Childs, “We’re trying to keep things affordable for customers as well as paying our expenses.”
Prices at major grocery stores tell a different story.
Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index shows that grocery store prices on fresh fruits and vegetables are constantly changing.
In September, vegetable prices shot up three per cent compared to the month prior. In October, vegetable prices dropped six per cent, according to an analysis by Capital Current.
Seeing produce prices swing like this is not surprising to Renée-Claude Goulet, a science advisor at the Canada Agriculture Food Museum. “Food systems and supply chains are complex, with tons of factors affecting the cost of food,” said Goulet.
Everything from weather patterns, fuel and fertilizer costs, tariffs, global markets, labour disruptions and even the strength of the Canadian dollar can influence what shoppers pay at the checkout, said Goulet. “So, in essence, it’s complicated,” she said. “But it’s always good news for the consumer when prices of essential products are on the decrease.”
Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, said price fluctuations are changing shopping habits.
“Prices are more volatile with produce,” said Charlebois “We’re spooked and often shocked by some prices and that stays in our heads.”
“Food inflation is a problem, but price volatility is a worse problem because it pushes people away from fresh products.”
Mason-Phillips says a lot of people think shopping locally for produce is more expensive than major grocers, but he said this isn’t typically the case.
“It does seem to be a bit of a throwaway line that farmer’s markets aren’t accessible or … they tend to be more expensive,” he said. “I’ve noticed the opposite trend where grocery store items keep climbing. … In some cases our prices are actually lower than, for example, the same product at Loblaws,” said Mason-Phillips.
Ana Hart, who has been working at Juniper Farm near Wakefield, Que. for the past three years, said she’s noticed the same trend. Hart explained she’s heard complaints about the price of their leeks, which are $6.50 per bunch. “I went to a grocery store the other night and the leeks were literally $7 for the same amount as ours,” she said.
Despite complaints, buying local produce is increasing in Canada, according to this year’s Canadian Food Sentiment Index, a publication Charlebois and his team produces.
In 2025, nearly 52 per cent of Canadians always or often have chosen local food compared to 33.5 per cent the year before. This increase is mainly driven by a widespread desire to purchase Canadian-made products amid the U.S. tariff war, according to the Index.
Childs said she’s noticed more community-driven support at Agricola Cooperative Farm this year.
“I think we did see … a generally positive year in terms of sales, and I think that the idea of supporting local is definitely a big part of that,” she said. “A big part of the reason why people are choosing to shop with us … is because of that idea of wanting to support people in their community.”
