As wildfires raged across California in January, U.S. President Donald Trump lit a match on his country’s commitment to the Paris Agreement on climate change with one of his first executive orders.
The move came as the World Weather Attribution, an international research consortium that tracks the impacts of global warming, says elevated carbon emissions in Earth’s atmosphere have intensified the likelihood and severity of such wildfires, highlighting the urgency of global climate action.
More specifically, the U.S. decision raises questions about its impact on Canada, which is closely tied to the U.S. economically and environmentally.
The Paris Agreement, finalized in 2016, is aimed at limiting global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a further goal to constrain it to 1.5°C or lower.
While countries voluntarily set emission reduction targets through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the agreement does not binding commitments.
This is not the first time Trump has withdrawn the U.S. from the accord. He did so in 2017, during his first term. Typically, the Paris Agreement requires a one-year notice period for withdrawal, but this time, Trump’s executive order declared the exit would be “effective immediately.” In a speech, he called the agreement a “ripoff,” the executive order stating that “the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country’s values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives.”
As Trump distanced the U.S. from the goals of the Paris Agreement, he also reversed many environmental policies, some of which could have direct consequences for Canada. One example is the reversal of the Federal Buy Clean initiative, which aimed to establish federal standards for low-emission construction materials.
“The U.S. had some policy in place where federal projects had to buy cement with lower emissions. Canada and the U.S. were really working together on standardizing those rules,” says Jana Elbrecht, a policy adviser at the B.C.-based advocacy organization Clean Energy Canada. She adds that while the private sector continues to push forward with collaboration, the progress may be paused because of the policy reversal.
Beyond policy, the American withdrawal may also influence public perception in Canada, raising questions about long-term commitments to climate action. Claudine Brulé, with the Toronto-based Canadian Climate Institute, says the U.S. actions might influence some Canadians.
However, she said the CCI remains confident that the growing toll of climate change will ultimately shape attitudes.
“We strongly believe that climate change and climate-fueled events will have an impact, and that Americans and Canadians will see that it’s costing so much more than climate action,” she said.
“We strongly believe that climate change and climate-fueled events will have an impact, and that Americans and Canadians will see that it’s costing so much more than climate action.”
— Claudine Brulé, media specialist, Canadian Climate Institute
Canada has already felt the financial consequences, with insurance claims for climate-related disasters surpassing An unprecedented $8 billion this year, according to the Insurance Bureau of Canada.
Despite the challenges, experts such as Elbrecht remain optimistic about Canada’s progress toward meeting climate targets and the global momentum behind renewable energy.
“I don’t think it makes meeting climate targets impossible. I do think Canadians might probably think, are we still on track?” she said.
The good news, according to Elbrecht, is that “by now, the energy transition is not driven by ambitious politicians; it’s not driven by climate activists; it’s driven by economics.”
She points out that some of the world’s largest economies, including China and the EU, are moving toward renewables because it’s becoming the cheaper option.
Brulé also notes that while the U.S. has withdrawn from the Paris accord, it is now one of only four countries that have not ratified it, alongside Yemen, Iran and Libya. However, she insisted the global push toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains strong.
“Canada should just keep going, and maybe Canada can be in a leadership position to show what can be done,” she added.
Despite Trump’s withdrawal, climate action in the U.S. has not come to a standstill. The U.S. Climate Alliance — a coalition of 24 governors representing 54 per cent of the population — has reaffirmed its commitment to the Paris Agreement’s targets. In fact, the alliance states that its members are on track to meet near-term climate goals, aiming to cut collective net greenhouse gas emissions 26 per cent below 2005 levels by 2025.
The coalition has also set ambitious long-term targets, pledging to reduce emissions by at least 50-52 per cent by 2030 and 61-66 per cent by 2035.
Elisabeth Gilmore, an associate professor in environmental engineering at Carleton University, stressed that climate change is a global challenge and emphasized that “every tonne counts.”
She explained that limiting global warming to 1.5°C is better than 1.6°C, 1.6°C is better than 1.7°C, and so on. Each fraction of a degree reduces the impacts society will face.
For Ottawa, these fractions of a degree matter. The city has already felt the effects of climate change firsthand, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe.
Over the past few years, Ottawa has experienced so-called “once-in-a-century” level floods along the Ottawa River in 2017 and 2019. These events caused extensive property damage and threatened people’s safety. In addition, Ottawa is experiencing more heatwaves such as the one in July 2018 that lasted six days.
The city was also hit by tornados in 2018 and 2019 that destroyed many homes.
As Ottawa’s climate shifts, these extreme events will continue to become more frequent. A 2020 report jointly commissioned by the City of Ottawa and the National Capital Commission was clear that the region can expect adverse impacts because of climate change: “Conditions favourable for extreme events such as freezing rain, tornadoes and wildfires are projected to become more common,” the report concluded.
While the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has raised concerns about global climate cooperation, Canada is pressing forward with its climate goals through federal and local actions. Ottawa’s local initiatives—such as a recent bylaw penalizing excessive idling of vehicles, various improvements to public transportation, and stronger protections of the urban forest — have all been hailed as steps in helping Canada and its capital to reach emissions reduction targets.
While the U.S. declaration created uncertainty, Canada’s climate actions at local and national levels show that progress can still be made, experts say.
“The Paris Agreement survived Trump round one,” said Elbrecht. “Then it was unprecedented, so why not survive round two?”
