For Ottawa resident and Dalhousie University student Bella Arsenault, one word defines her feelings about the upcoming federal election: exhaustion.
“It’s so sad to see how much the news and election in the United States are affecting our election,” she said. “Everything is focused around the States, and that’s annoying and frustrating to see.”
She has other grievances with the political moment du jour — low voter turnout in February’s Ontario election, the effort that goes into coordinating her mail-in ballot and media coverage of the candidates.
Despite Arsenault’s frustrations, she’s still “absolutely” casting a ballot in the upcoming federal election on April 28.
Her dedication to show up to vote despite her fatigue with the current political moment may be part of a larger voter phenomenon ahead of the federal election, an expert and advocate told Capital Current.
When an election is held immediately following another campaign — such as the snap federal election being called shortly after Ontario’s snap election on Feb. 27 — turnout in the latter election may be “significantly” depressed, according to a 2017 European Journal of Political Economy study.
But Samantha Reusch of Apathy is Boring, a non-partisan organization that encourages Canadian youth to exercise their democratic rights, is optimistic.
“People are incredibly engaged around some of the big ballot questions. My hope is that this makes people realize how incredibly important our democracy is.”
— Samantha Reusch, voter participation advocate, Apathy is Boring
Reusch said she anticipates many voters who stayed home for Ontario’s provincial election will turn out to federal polls — though she acknowledged it’s difficult to predict with certainty.
Overall turnout in the provincial election was second-lowest in Ontario’s history at 45.4 per cent, according to Elections Ontario.
In the “current context” — an unprecedented trade war with the U.S. and threats from U.S. president Donald Trump to annex Canada — “people are incredibly engaged around some of the big ballot questions,” Reusch said. “My hope is that this makes people realize how incredibly important our democracy is.”
There are “duelling forces” at play in the state of Canadian voter fatigue, said Ottawa-based political theorist and commentator David Moscrop, a contributing columnist with the Washington Post and author of the 2019 book Too Dumb for Democracy? Why We Make Bad Political Decisions and How We Can Make Better Ones.
Moscrop pointed to the Liberal leadership race, U.S. presidential election, recent byelections and other political contests that may be tiring voters out.
“You’ve been inundated with all this stuff, and it’s a lot,” Moscrop said. “But this is an unprecedented election for most people.”
Moscrop said the urgency of some of the federal ballot questions — Trump threats to make Canada a “51st state” and U.S. tariffs on imported Canadian goods — could work to offset the pressures of voting fatigue.
The unusually dramatic unfolding of the race could also mitigate the fatigue, Moscrop said.
The Liberal Party has made a startling comeback in the polls after former prime minister Justin Trudeau announced his planned resignation in early January and Trump assumed office later in that month.
Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who also spent several years as an executive with the Brookfield investment corporation, quickly rallied support among Liberals, and the political rookie has proven favourble to voters after suspending the consumer carbon tax and holding tariff talks with Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty have sparked a national “Elbows Up!” unity movement, disrupting polarization in the political landscape.
Currently, the Liberals are “heavily favoured” to win a majority government, according to CBC’s poll tracker — a stark contrast to the Conservatives’ dominance in the polls at the tail end of Trudeau’s time in office.
“People might be motivated to turn out despite fatigue, even excited to turn out,” Moscrop said. “The stakes are high, and the race is close.”
