Canadian experts are divided over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s recent statement that Canada would support the United States and Britain if they provide Ukraine the ability to launch missile strikes against military targets deep within Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned such support for Ukraine would draw NATO countries into direct war with his country, which began an illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 following its earlier annexation of the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in 2014.
“Canada fully supports Ukraine using long-range weaponry to prevent and interdict Russia’s continued ability to degrade Ukrainian civilians (and) infrastructure, and mostly to kill innocent civilians in their unjust war,” Trudeau told reporters at a news conference in Quebec on Sept. 13.
Last week, during meetings at UN headquarters in New York, Trudeau repeated his support for equipping Ukraine with long-range missiles.
“We need the war to end. We need Ukraine to win this war,” he said. “That’s why Canada and so many others are so unequivocal about ensuring that Ukraine has the tools to defend itself against this illegal invasion, including diminishing Russia’s capacity to launch further attacks into Ukraine.”
The specific weapon being considered is the Franco-British Storm Shadow, a cruise missile that travels close to the speed of sound. Although there was no announcement after British Prime Minister Kier Starmer met U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington on Sept. 13, there are reports of a possible agreement to proceed with a plan to supply Ukraine with the cruise missiles.
Paul Robinson, professor of public and international affairs, University of Ottawa
The UK has been more openly enthusiastic about giving Ukraine the capability to use the weapon, while U.S. officials have been more circumspect about the strategy.
“The Americans are more hesitant than the British because of a fear of asymmetric responses,” said Paul Robinson, University of Ottawa professor of public and international affairs. “The Russians could respond by giving long-range and hypersonic weapons to other parties elsewhere in the world — such as the Houthis in Yemen, who could attack American troops.”
Although Putin has shifted his red lines in the past, these missiles seem to be distinctive because “targeting would be done through American intelligence sources such as satellite imagery, optimal flight path, location of defence radar systems, and programming — all the Ukrainians are really doing is pressing the button on Ukrainian soil,” Robinson said.
‘The Russians could respond by giving long-range and hypersonic weapons to other parties elsewhere in the world.’
— Paul Robinson, professor of public and international affairs, University of Ottawa
With the ability to zig zag around defensive systems, the Storm Shadow is launched by aircraft and can hit targets hundreds of kilometres away. Its warhead has a first explosive component which can break a bunker or airplane hangar, and then a second blast element that is the main explosive charge.
“The ability to take out ammunition depots and planes will have an effect on the damage Russia can continue to do to Ukrainian civilians,” said Jaroslaw Balan, former director of the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies. “Putin has declared war on NATO a long time ago through disinformation and acts of sabotage . . . Canada’s voice is symbolically important, and Trudeau’s statements are welcomed.”
Jaroslaw Balan, former director of the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies.
Although the same weapons have already been used in occupied Crimea to strike the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, Ivan Katchanovski, professor in the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa, said Putin’s “red lines” should be taken seriously by Canada and its allies.
He accused Trudeau of making supportive statements about potential missile strikes deep in Russian to accumulate political points.
“This is not a miracle weapon and will not change the outcome of the war,” said Katchanovski, “but it will cause escalation.” After attending the United Nations Security Council and General Assembly on Sept. 25, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was scheduled to present his “victory plan” to Biden. At a recent conference in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, Zelenskyy stated that long-range missiles would “make it easier for Ukraine to force Russia to end the war.
