By Pablo Fuchs
On Jan. 20, Ottawa watched as the world waved goodbye to Bill Clinton and said hello to his successor, George W. Bush.
In economic terms, it’s going to be very difficult for Bush to follow Clinton’s footsteps: lead the Western world into the most prosperous era it has ever seen.
During the past eight years, North America has gone from a numbing recession to an economic boom, lead by the growth of the high-tech sector. While history will hail Clinton as the man who launched this revolution, Dubya’s role in history will be what he has done to continue, or end, this unprecedented growth.
So, how will President Bush follow suit? The answer is just as important to Canadians as it is to our American neighbours. As Pierre Trudeau once said, “Living next to the United States is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.”
As the high-tech capital of Canada, Ottawa’s companies in this sector will feel the repercussions of a Bush presidency: what happens to companies in Silicon Valley will definitely affect what happens to local companies like Nortel, Corel, JDS Uniphase, and Rebel.com.
It appears that Bush will not play with fire. Although a Gore presidency would’ve been beneficial to the high-tech industry, he will not do anything to stop the unprecedented growth of the last eight years.
As a matter of fact, he will emphasize the Republican Party’s role in fostering this new era. He will say the Republican Congress of the last decade deserves great credit for passing forth legislation that saw: the Internet Tax Freedom Act (which put a three-year moratorium on new Internet taxes), an expanded visa program (that provided much of the highly skilled labour that has spurred Ottawa-area workers to head south of the border) and the deregulation of telecommunications, still in its early stages, that helped shatter monopolies and opened the door to worldwide communication.
But, what happens if Bush ignores the high-tech market? As a champion of the oil market, Bush will definitely pass forth legislation that allows “Old Economy” superpowers to regain their stronghold in the stock market.
If that occurs, Ottawa could see another high-tech boom that makes the current one pale in comparison. Canada’s government has long championed the Internet, technology, and connecting all Canadians to the Web. Perhaps, if the technology market slows down in the States, it could force some American companies to move up to Canada. Of all cities, what better a location than Ottawa?
But for him to continue the tremendous growth of the 1990s, while avoiding his father’s footsteps of leading the nation into a recession, Bush must do his best to promote the New Economy in order for it to flourish. The tax cut for business that he’s endorsing could be the best solution.
In addition to tax cuts, Bush’s current plan proposes to protect the technology industry from modern-day pirates at home and abroad, while at the same time restraining the hand of government so that it cannot smother or slow the growth of worldwide commerce and communication through the Internet.
Whether he accepts his responsibility to ensure the continued growth of the high-tech industry has yet to be seen. But in the process, Ottawa will definitely need to keep an eye on the proceedings south of the border, as it could be the greatest beneficiary of Bush’s presidency