By Kristen Everson
Urban communities like Centretown may see an increase in population as the price of oil rises and people can no longer afford to drive in from the suburbs, says a committee member of a peak oil forum for Ottawa-Gatineau.
David Delaney is a retired electrical engineer and was on the planning committee of the Ottawa-Gatineau Peak Oil Forum. The forum, held in late January, discussed the impact declining oil production will have on the city.
Peak oil is when the world’s production of oil reaches the highest point possible. Then, due to the shortage in supply, oil production will begin to decline and gas prices will skyrocket.
There has already been a peak in natural gas production, affecting heating bills, Delaney says. The combination of increases in natural gas and oil prices will likely lead to suburban residents moving back into the city.
Places like Centretown may see multiple families living in single houses because it will be cheaper.
Delaney says that when this happens, “there will be less economic activity in Ottawa, there will be less economic activity everywhere.”
The forum also created groups to discuss how peak oil will affect Ottawa communities and ways to deal with the shortage.
The members will include participants from the forum and experts from the specific topic-area. They will cover everything from transportation to food security, the forum’s co-ordinator, Ann Coffey says.
Each group’s suggestions will be included in a report and presented to city council.
Because Ottawa doesn’t have a plan for peak oil, these suggestions may give the city a firm base from which to start making plans.
The forum was put on by Ottawa’s Peak Oil Planning Committee and the Environmental Advisory Committee.
Residents will notice increased prices for all products that depend on oil, Coffey says. Everything from fuel, shampoo bottles, vegetables and plastic bags will cost more.
“People in compact communities who walk to work, the stores and to school will have far less trouble than those in the suburbs,” she says. “Suburbs may become ghost towns.”
Unemployment will also increase, Delaney says, because economic growth and employment depends on the oil supply.
Ottawa will have to take transportation costs into consideration as well. Communities will have to grow their own food to cut down on transportation costs, she says.
There have been different estimates of when oil production will peak, but Coffey says it’s most likely to peak sometime before 2014.
The issue isn’t that one day the world will wake up to no more oil, but it will be a slow process of decline after oil peaks, Delaney says.
Goulbourn city Coun. Janet Stavinga, says Ottawa is planning and building sustainable communities.
The city’s Smart Growth plan is “creating communities where people can live, work and play,” she says.
This idea is part of Ottawa’s Official Plan, a planning document for the city with a 20-year horizon.
People are becoming very conscious about the prices of fuel, Stavinga says. They are looking at different ways to conserve fuel such as carpooling, public transit and planning more efficient trips.
Ottawa’s rural areas do not have the same access as urban areas to public transit. “We have to find creative ways to provide public transit to those areas,” she says.
“How we plan our communities is very important,” Stavinga says. Ottawa is creating communities where people can “live, work and play.”