Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa recently cast a cloud of doubt over the proposed second stage of the city’s light rail transit expansion.
In October, Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson unveiled the city’s grand vision to expand its transit system by adding stations as far east as Orleans, as far west as Bayshore, and as far south as Bowesville, which is located just south of Ottawa’s airport. The first stage of the plan – the construction of the Confederation Line, which will connect Tunney’s Pasture Station to Blair Station – is already underway, with a tunnel-digging machine currently boring a path deep beneath Ottawa’s downtown core.
The city expects stage two to cost about $3 billion, nearly $2 billion of which will have to come from the coffers of the provincial and federal governments.
In a speech at city hall on Jan. 13, Sousa spoke of his government’s commitment to investing in Ontario. But he refused to directly answer questions about the provincial government’s willingness to fund the second stage of Ottawa’s LRT expansion.
“We’re going to have a lot of initiatives going forward,” he said, after reporters asked him whether Ottawa would eventually see the money it needs. “Ontario has always been supportive of initiatives here in Ottawa.”
Ottawa author and consultant Bob Plamondon believes that uncertainty about the province’s commitment to the city’s vision should not come as a surprise to anybody.
“I don’t think anything is a slam dunk when it comes to money from other orders of government,” he said. “In particular, Ontario is facing structural deficits and rising debts, so, when it comes to Ontario’s finances, there’s a lot of risk and uncertainty.”
Largely due to the province’s debt burden, rating agencies S&P and Moody’s have expressed their concerns over Ontario’s finances. In 2012, Moody’s downgraded Ontario’s credit rating from AA1 to AA2 and S&P downgraded its financial outlook for the province.
“But there is another issue,” warned Plamondon. “We don’t know who will be the premier and what party will be in power when the time comes for the funding proposals to be considered.”
Still, Plamondon said he doesn’t see why any party or politician should make such a decision in the absence of a proper cost-benefit analysis.
“My criticism of the current light rail project is that we don’t have a business case that demonstrates that this is the best course of action, that this produces the best return on investment for the dollars that are going into it,” he said. “I think a solid business case does enhance our prospects of getting funding.”
But Watson said he remains confident in light of Sousa’s ambiguous remarks.
“The fact that he’s not committing to a firm number doesn’t mean that they’re a government that isn’t interested in transit, because the province was the first to the table with $600 million in our first phase,” said Watson. “What would worry me is if he said they’re no longer in the transit funding business.”
Watson said greater details about funding would surface once it comes time to formally apply for it. He added that the matter of funding is not a question of whether it will come or not, but rather of when and how the money will come into the city’s hands.
“I’m very confident that we have a plan that is both doable and affordable,” he said. “Just as we were able to convince the federal and provincial governments the last time to contribute funds for the project, I have great confidence we’ll be able to use the same solid argument to convince them to invest in the future.”
In fact, Sousa’s evasive responses about funding failed to ring any of Watson’s alarm bells.
“Finance ministers don’t make decisions about close to a billion dollars in a media scrum,” said Watson pointedly.