By Greg Wigmore
The federal government has vowed to forge ahead with the Kyoto protocol on climate change, but has assured industry it will first consider the effects its implementation would have on Canada’s ability to compete in the global economy.
The international agreement, negotiated in 1997, requires most industrialized countries to cut the amount of greenhouse gases discharged into the atmosphere.
By ratifying the accord, Canada would be bound to reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases to six per cent below 1990 levels.
Public opinion polls show most Canadians believe concerns about climate change are real and credible.
However, there are also valid concerns about the impact radical restructuring will have on jobs and the country’s economic well-being – especially with our biggest trading partner, the United States, refusing to play by the same rules.
Shortly after his inauguration last year, U.S. President George W. Bush announced his country would withdraw from the pact, largely because it exempted developing countries from emissions reductions.
In the months ahead, government and industry groups will try to forecast the effects Kyoto’s implementation may have on the Canadian economy.
Industrialists fear laws reducing greenhouse gas emissions will put them at a great disadvantage against their American competitors.
Even the U.S. ambassador, Paul Cellucci, has cautioned that for economic reasons, Canada should adopt a joint “North American strategy” to deal with climate change (scrapping Kyoto, in other words).
Those who insist the value of the Canadian dollar is already abysmal in comparison to its U.S. counterpart can be expected to weigh in on the issue as well.
Canada has done little but talk about its commitment to the agreement since 1997, while waiting to see what the Americans would do.
David Anderson, the federal environment minister, has said the government will likely ratify the agreement this summer. He suggested the prime minister might time the passage of the necessary legislation to coincide with the Group of Eight summit he’s scheduled to host in Alberta in June, or the United Nations summit on sustainable development in August.
There could hardly be a more opportune time to ratify Kyoto than on the eve of the G-8 summit. Japan and the European Union nations have pledged to approve the treaty this year, with or without American participation.
By ratifying the protocol in advance of the meeting, Jean Chretien and the other leaders could use their combined moral clout in an effort to coax and prod Bush into reconsidering the U.S. position.
Even if the Bush administration refuses to ratify Kyoto, international pressure could induce it to embark on a more modest plan to reduce emissions.
It is in Canada’s economic interest that Americans share the burden of substantial emissions reductions.
With the United States emitting between one-quarter and one-fifth of the world’s greenhouse gases, U.S. participation is essential if the objective – halting climate change – is to be achieved.
However, without a change of heart by the Bush administration or a jarring event to galvanize U.S. public opinion, Canadians will have an important decision to make.
The first choice is to join the rest of the world in living up to our treaty commitments, taking meaningful steps to ensure industries take responsibility for the consequences of their activities.
Transitional economic pains may occur in the short term, as steps are taken to overhaul industries and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The period of transition will be much easier, however, if industries have more time to implement the necessary changes.
Alternatively, we can take our marching orders from the U.S. ambassador and renounce the Kyoto protocol, justifying our decision to the international community by pointing the finger south.
The future competitiveness of Canadian industry vis-à-vis U.S. firms should be considered.
But our decision should not be dictated by the policies of a U.S. administration in bed with oil barons and other special interests.