By Janan Mosazai
The race for Ottawa Centre will be a real contest.
Political observers and the candidates themselves agree that winning the election in the downtown riding will be a challenge, since the former MP, New Democrat Ed Broadbent announced his exit from federal politics this summer .
The NDP has won the riding only twice in the past and the Conservatives have had only one victory – Robert de Cotret in a 1978 by-election – since the riding Ottawa Centre was created 40 years ago.
Political affairs columnist John Ibbitson, a resident of Ottawa Centre, believes the riding is more likely to vote Liberal as most voters here work for the federal government. The Liberal Party is “a party of big government,” he says.
“All things equal, it’s safe to say that the riding will go Liberal.”
But Ibbitson, who writes for the Globe and Mail, adds there is a certain level of support for the NDP within the riding. He says tipping the balance largely depends on the campaign performance of leaders of the two parties at the national level.
“The race between Jack Layton and Paul Martin will determine which way this riding goes,” he says.
But Jon Pammett, a Carleton University professor and expert on Canadian electoral matters, says the next election will be “quite a tight three-way race” between the NDP, the Liberal and the Conservative candidates in Ottawa Centre.
He says the NDP’s new candidate, Paul Dewar, may find it hard to retain votes Broadbent won from personal popularity.
Dewar admits he’s no Broadbent, but says he is still optimistic about his chances.
“I am confident of what I have put in place. I am a determined man,” he says.
Dewar’s campaign manager, Rob Sutherland, says his candidate – a long-time community activist and school teacher who was brought up in Ottawa – will compensate for his lack of recognition with his “strong community base.”
Sutherland, who has managed NDP campaigns in the same riding for some 20 years, also claims the government has lost the public’s trust and that voters are “looking for a different vehicle to serve them.”
“Credibility and ethics are the fundamental issues,’’ Sutherland says. “People are sick of an unethical government…Liberals have pissed a lot of people off.”
In the 2004 election, though, the Conservatives won a total of 11,933 votes to the Liberal’s 19,478 and the NDP’s 25,734.
Another decisive factor is the Christmas season election.
Conservative Party candidate Keith Fountain, a mid-level diplomat who is on leave from the department of foreign affairs to run in the election, says “Canadians are smart enough to know that there are real issues” related to the performance of the government and that they won’t punish the opposition parties for forcing an early poll.
On the contrary, he says an early election will actually benefit the opposition. He says voters are angry at high taxes and a weak federal government. “When the weather is lousy only the angry go to vote,” he says.
Lawyer and Liberal candidate Richard Mahoney also ran in last year’s election and lost to Broadbent by about 6,000 votes.
Mahoney, a friend and former executive assistant to Paul Martin before the latter became prime minister, is described by some in the media as the frontrunner in this year’s race.