The ballots have been cast and voters have unwittingly crowned John Tory the Stéphane Dion of Ontario.
The Progressive Conservative leader clung stubbornly to a losing campaign promise because it was sound policy. Good idea or not, voters didn’t buy into it.
Tory never fully recovered from the controversial religious schools funding issue that dominated Ontario’s 2007 election. He lost his seat in the legislature and only after losing in the recent
byelection, has he decided to leave.
But with no leader-in-waiting, the Progressive Conservatives are now facing an identity crisis.
After the Mike Harris years, which saw the rise and fall of the far right, a moderate candidate such as Tory seemed like their best bet. But after his disappointing performance, the party needs a leader that can heal internal divides and rebuild in time for the 2011 provincial election.
In spite of Tory’s failings, the Progressive Conservatives need a moderate leader if they have any hope of reclaiming the province.
Rand Dyck, a political science professor at Carleton University, says the key to electoral success in Ontario is the ability to run a streamlined government while being sensitive to the electorate’s diverse interests.
He attributes the firm grip the Tories have had on the province in the past to this formula.
The current tension between the moderate and right wings of the party is a matter of track record.
While progressives have historically been in charge, it’s the right wing that has most recently enjoyed success. Tory’s hapless leadership as a moderate has given the right wing renewed purpose within the party.
But Dyck cautions that Ontario’s political climate has changed since Harris ushered in the Common Sense Revolution. He doesn’t think a platform of balanced budgets, tax cuts and dismantled social programs would resonate with today’s voters the way it did in 1995.
Bob Rae’s NDP government wasn’t a tough act to follow. He had the misfortune of inheriting a recession.
Harris fulfilled voter expectations of a business-like approach to government. But he didn’t reconcile efficiency with a need to balance competing interests within the province.
Harris was an anomaly in Ontario politics, says Dyck. He didn’t belong to the progressive element that has traditionally led his party to victory.
The classic Progressive Conservative was a red Tory or social progressive – as the party’s name suggests. These moderates readily recognize the province’s social interests.
Dyck says, as a province, Ontario is fairly centrist. The party owes its past success – namely its uninterrupted streak from 1943-1985 – to its progressive wing.
Commentators have already begun to speculate as to who might enter the race. Unfortunately for the Tories, the top would-be contenders all represent the right wing of the party.
Right now, Tim Hudak is the candidate to beat. He was a young cabinet minister during the Harris years, so he has a solid organization in place.
Christine Elliott, another possible contender, is Jim Flaherty’s wife. Though Elliott isn’t a veteran of the legislature, she would appeal to the party’s right wing.
A third candidate for the party’s top job might be Randy Hillier. He’s also right wing, although he doesn’t fit into either camp. He is primarily concerned with rural issues as a former leader of the Ontario Landowners Association.
All of these potential candidates are caucus members. The Progressive Conservatives are reluctant to consider outsiders after their experience with Tory.
“They can’t really afford to go further with a candidate who doesn’t have a seat,” says Dyck.
However, the right-wing contingent would find it especially tough to govern right now. In the midst of a recession, even committed conservatives, such as Jim Flaherty have been forced to suppress their beliefs.
The Tories need to return to their roots and choose a strong moderate leader. If they hope to oust the Liberals in the next election, they need to do a better job of playing to the centre.