One of the most important Canadian elections happened on November 4th. Except it didn’t happen in Canada.
The 2008 American election was already established as one of the most historically important that nation has ever seen. The improbable run of Barack Obama and the prominence of Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton had challenged and defeated notions of race and gender that were almost unthinkable even eight years ago. Whoever won, the results of this election were going to change the face of the globe.
For Canadians, those elections are going to prove a lot more important than the inconsequential one that concluded a few weeks before.
The United States is a lot more important to Canada than the other way around. More than 50 per cent of our exports go to the United States, according to Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada, and the United States is Canada’s largest foreign investor. The Canadian-US border sees 1.5 billion dollars of trade a day, the world’s largest bi-lateral trade relationship, though China has surpassed Canada as the biggest importer into the US.
Trade is not the only indication of market integration. While Canada managed to weather some of the storm when the mortgage lender crisis slammed the US economy, there have been significant fallouts. Inflation rose, and the Canadian dollar has free fallen to its lowest exchange in almost a decade.
The different approaches Obama and McCain intended to take to fix the American economy were going to have ripple effects across Canada, as would the implementation of their separate visions.
For one, the debate regarding taxation in Canada was renewed. Obama said he would cut taxes for the 95 per cent of the population that makes under $250,000 and raise it for the rest. McCain called this socialism, and said any tax cuts are signs of an intrusive government. Harper agrees with the right-wing Republican stance. He cut the GST, with the effect that Canadian surpluses have begun to curtail. If it’s found that tax increases for the wealthy help invest in social programs like health care in the U.S., similar ideas might gain credence here.
Another key campaign point was energy. Both candidates had new renewable energy policies, which focused on greener energy practices. McCain’s centered on nuclear and clean-coal while Obama’s favored more expensive long-term solutions like solar and wind-power, though he did agree with increased offshore drilling. In either case, a green shift in the U.S. is likely to intensify pressure on the Conservatives. Harper has shown some disinterest in doing anything drastic to curtail greenhouse gas emission, but won’t find it that easy to continue with a new environmentally conscious administration in Washington.
There are many more issues that can have a serious effect on Canada. American leadership will largely determine the role NATO and consequently Canada plays in Afghanistan. Obama seems to favor a shorter term than McCain, though both agree that the mission needs to be extended until peace can be ensured. On a more global scale, American policy towards troubled regions in Africa and the Middle East will have dramatic influence on the UN and its ability to stabilize those areas. If the more multilateral Obama strengthens his bond with the United Nations, Harper will be pressured to follow suit.
That said, during the course of the election campaign, McCain indicated his administration would have been as unilateral as the Bush one. He made it clear that he would use the same hard-line approach in dealing with Iran, and showed no real interest in adopting a more active role in the United Nations. That would have bolstered Harper’s stance on foreign policy.
These types of issues are practical, substantial influences. But the American election is also an ideological one, and its cultural ramifications may have another result on Canada.
A victory for Obama is a significant victory for race in America. His run may cause some to question the ethnic disparity in Canadian politics.
The three leading candidates in the Canadian election were all middle-aged white males. Harper’s conservative cabinet is almost entirely middle-aged white males. It raises questions about the equality in Canadian politics and about the racial ideologies in Canadian society in general. There seem to be no legitimate contenders for the leadership of any of the three parties who are either of an ethnic minority or a woman.
Canadians were definitely interested. A poll conducted by Environics found that 15 per cent of Canadians would have rather voted in the American election as far back as February of this year. No doubt with all of the interest since then that the number had increased dramatically.
And Canadians know exactly who they would have voted for. CTV reported that an international poll conducted in October by eight major international newspapers, including La Presse in Canada, found overwhelming support for Obama. In Canada, 70 per cent of respondents favoured Obama, the second highest of any nation polled.
McCain can consider himself lucky that Canada didn’t have a vote. But it did have a vested interest.
The election may be over, but the long-term effects of that decision have only just begun.