Something is rotten in the state of Ontario — or so the line might read if Shakespeare’s famous play were acted out by the candidates in today’s provincial byelection in Ottawa-Vanier.
Unlike last week’s U.S. presidential election, where the divides were wide and the frustrations numerous, the state of Ontario politics, if you believe Progressive Conservative candidate and former Ontario ombudsman André Marin, is uniquely fouled-up by one issue alone — the Ontario Liberals’ mismanagement of the province’s electricity system.
“Businesses are suffocating, they’re dying, they’re calling out for help,” said Marin, addressing an audience of about 250 at an all-candidates forum last week and doing everything in his power to swing discussion back toward hydro.
This view is shared by NDP candidate Claude Bisson, the other main contender in today’s race againse Liberal candidate Nathalie Des Rosiers.
The seat became vacant when long-time Liberal MPP Madeleine Meilleur unexpectedly retired in July.
“They’re dying because electricity rates are too high.”
The strategy of focusing almost exclusively on hydro has been embraced by both oppositon parties.
In fact, PC leader Patrick Brown, who visited Ottawa on Oct. 31 and drew parallels between frighteningly-high electricity bills and Halloween, has set up a website designed specifically for Ontarians to share their electricity nightmares, which can then be used as ammunition against Premier Kathleen Wynne and other vulnerable Liberals in what appears to be a one-sided battle over Ontario’s electricity future.
In short, opposition parties smell blood in the water.
When it comes to rising electricity rates, they’re moving in for the kill.
If you think this sounds overly dramatic and there’s no possible way a single issue like energy could prevent Des Rosiers from winning in Ottawa-Vanier – a seat Liberals have held for nearly half a century – well, think again.
On Sept. 1, voters in Scarborough-Rouge River did what seemed impossible by electing PC candidate Raymond Cho, a Toronto city councillor and former social worker.
It was the first time since 1985 a Liberal candidate lost the seat, and it’s the only riding in the GTA held by the PCs.
Throughout the campaign, hydro was a major issue, featuring prominently in opposition advertisements and talking points. Doug Ford, who helped run Cho’s campaign, said rising hydro rates were among the most important concerns for voters, and a key reason for the PC victory.
In the end, Cho won the seat by nearly 2,500 votes — almost 10 points higher than Liberal candidate Piragal Thiru.
It’s impossible to say what effect soaring hydro rates had on the Scarborough-Rouge River race, but there’s little doubt it hurt the Liberals.
The question then isn’t if they got hurt by hydro, but how bad?
If you still find it hard to imagine that an issue like hydro could topple decades of Liberal dominance in Ottawa-Vanier, just look at the government’s reaction to the Scarborough-Rouge River results.
Within a week of the loss, Wynne had prorogued the provincial legislature, announced a dizzyingly-quick, four-day turn around before a new Throne Speech and pledged to remove the provincial HST from electricity bills.
Within another two weeks, the government announced the cancelation of nearly $4 billion in renewable energy contracts.
Three weeks after that, they passed legislation enhancing subsidies for rural electricity customers in Ontario.
In total, the government’s action (or reaction, if you will) on rising energy costs amounts to something like $10-$12 billion in savings over the next five years.
Whether this will be enough to ward off defeat in Ottawa-Vanier today, and then in the next general election set for just over 18 months from now, is decidedly unsure.
What’s certain, however, is that Ontarians are angry.