According to a new growth projections report, the City of Ottawa is estimating major population increases will take place in the city over the next 20 years.
The projections take into account birth, mortality and immigration rates and a host of other factors.
The most conservative estimate, the “low projection,” predicts an increase in the population of 130,000 people by 2036.
This would represent an increase of 14 per cent from the 2014 population.
The “reference projection” calls for an increase of 267,000 people, a 28-per-cent rise in population. Finally, the “high projection” indicates there could be a 359,000-person increase by 2036, a whopping 38-per-cent jump from 2014 levels.
The projections are based on the latest Statistics Canada data for the City of Ottawa and were presecnted at a recent planning committee meeting.
The forecast shows an increase not only in the overall population, but also in the average age of the population.
The report, which was recently submitted to city councillors, warns that the rising age could create difficulties for “aging in place” in Ottawa’s suburbs because of a lack of accessibility and challenges in property maintenance.
The concept of “aging in place” refers to the goal of allowing people to remain in their homes as long as possible, which helps reduce public healthcare costs.
The city’s prognosticators believe that this will lead to a move for many seniors to more central locations.
“The accommodation for seniors to live in close proximity to services and amenities is part of the official plan, which puts an incredibly strong emphasis on shifting the growth within the existing urban areas to minimize the need for urban expansion,” said John Smit, the city’s director of economic development and innovation.
Smit said this is a trend that has been prepared for, so that zoning of urban areas, such as Centretown, will not have to be changed to create new developments.
Instead, population density in existing properties will be intensified — for example, by creating multi-unit dwellings where a single home once stood.
“Centretown has plans in place that support an increase in population within the area to support a dynamic urban core that accommodates various socio-economic groups,” said Smit.
The report on growth projections for the city up to the year 2036 was presented at a recent planning committee meeting.
The committee led by Barrhaven Coun. Jan Harder heard from city planners as they outlined the projections. They also heard from members of the public who gave their input on the report.
The document was in need of an update as the previous version was nearly a decade old, according to Roy Cefu, a member of the city planning team that made the presentation to the committee.
“The long-term growth projections were last updated in 2007,” said Smit. “The projections will be extended from the current 2031 horizon to 2036.”
He added that they were updated for a few reasons beyond the fact that the previous report was outdated. The new one is now more aligned with Ontario policies on land-use planning.
The report is to be presented to city council at a meeting in early December.