The morning traffic jam in Ottawa is practically a public landmark, but the city’s efforts to curb it might be misplaced.
Mayor Jim Watson announced a new plan for a light rail system on Oct. 9. It’s intended to reach as far east as Place d’Orleans, as far west as Bayshore, and some distance to the south – although it won’t extend as far as the airport.
While the proposed system neglects some significant parts of the city, more serious problems may develop. According to Matthew Turner, an economics professor at the University of Toronto who researches urban transportation, some of the expected benefits may be unrealistic.
“You want to reduce congestion? Use tolls. You want to move people around cheaply? Use buses. You want to spend a lot of money to move not a lot of people around? Build a subway or a light rail,” Turner says.
Turner says light rails may reduce congestion for a short time, but have no effect in the long-term. More drivers, he says, will be attracted to what they perceive as extra space, resulting in the same overcrowded traffic.
He says that the only proven way to reduce congestion in cities is to install tolls.
“If you make everyone pay five dollars to get on the 417 during rush hour, people will spread out their trips,” he says.
Recent research has also found that light rail projects in the U.S. fail to live up to expectations. In September 2013, the Journal of Economic Literature published a paper by Clifford Winston, entitled “On the Performance of the U.S. Transportation System: Caution Ahead.”
Winston explains that light rail systems are not cost-effective because they are sparsely used during off-peak times, and cannot change routes to adjust for shifts in commuting patterns, and therefore rarely reach carrying capacity.
If this holds true for Ottawa, and riders will not substantially use light rail, it may need more tax money than expected to meet its running costs.
The budget for Ottawa’s light rail project is less than $2.5 billion, but if the system follows the trend in the U.S., it could end up costing much more in the long-term.
Rae Zimmerman, a public administration professor at New York University, says people find light rail systems “attractive,” as they can be very convenient for commuters. However, she says both light and heavy rail systems can only be cost-effective in densely populated areas.
Washington, D.C., she says, is an excellent example of a well-regarded rail system, which “does a wonderful job” of serving its outlying areas.
However, there are significant differences between Washington, D.C. and Ottawa – for example Washington has a population density of 3,977 people per square kilometre, according to the 2012 census. In comparison, Statistics Canada reported in 2011 that Ottawa has 316.6 people per square kilometre – less than a 10th the density of D.C.
Zimmerman says without significant population density, a light rail system will not be efficient. This contrasts with the high hopes some communities have for light rail.
Jamie Kwong, executive director of the Orleans Chamber of Commerce, says the planned light rail going “right into the town centre” will reduce traffic and drive economic development in Orleans.
Robert Dekker, vice-president of the Centretown Citizens Community Association, says he hopes the plan will lead to less congestion in Centretown, and encourage business in the area.
Both communities may end up disappointed. Turner says no form of transport has been shown to promote financial growth in a city – and there’s no reason to think light rail would.
Dekker also says he hopes a light rail to the airport will be added, but at the moment, the city has plans only to expand the airport parkway.
Kanata has also been left out of the new light rail design, with road extensions and expansions being planned to accommodate traffic there. However, Turner says bigger roads, like light rail, do not reduce traffic congestion in the long-term.
“If there’s more road space, people will fill it,” he says.
Rosemary Leu, executive director of the Kanata Chamber of Commerce, says the city is focusing on developing the east end while neglecting the west end.
The Kanata community, while pleased at the promise of road developments, is “disappointed” by its minimal inclusion in the master plan, Leu says.
“Even transportation within Kanata is not easy. We’re just as much taxpayers as anyone else,” she says.
That tax money might be needed more than city planners expect, if the light rail fails to live up to its hype and expert predictions hold true. The entire city could end up paying for a system that benefits a sparse few without reducing traffic, which can only lead to a more frustrating morning commute.